Texas just solidified its status as one of the dumbest, most poorly coached teams in the country by pissing away an overtime game against Wake Forest, which also happens to excel at boneheaded plays and has an awful coach.
The end of regulation was hilarious. Texas missed a two-foot shot for the lead, then Wake got a jump ball. Wake could have sealed the game, but their player ran the baseline, which is only legal after a made shot. Unforced turnover. Then Texas gets a foul and its supposed star player bricks the freethrow that could have won the game.
In overtime, Texas raced to an eight point lead and got the ball with 2:30 left. They followed that up with: a stupid offensive foul, failing to box anybody out on an offensive rebound slam dunk, a 90% freethrow shooter bricking two freethrows, leaving the same guy open on a slam dunk, two free throws, leaving a three point shooter wide open, bricking two MORE freethrows to leave it a one point game, and giving up the game winning jumper. If Texas had been able to shoot better than 2 of 6 from the line, been able to box the same guy out, remembered to guard the three point line when a two-pointer would not have hurt them, or perhaps just played like their heads weren't wedged up their asses, they would have won. Wake tried very hard to give this game to them.
Now an awful Wake Forest team gets a win. Though if Texas had won, it would have been another terrible team getting a win. Basically this matchup should never have been made: neither of these teams could beat anybody competent in the tournament and neither deserved a win.
Hmmm. Texas has bad educational standards and wants to make them worse; the Texas basketball and football teams are notorious for making braindead, stupid plays. Coincidence?
Full disclosure: I went to the University of Texas.
Showing posts with label college basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college basketball. Show all posts
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Sunday, April 5, 2009
On the Other Hand
So, to my great surprise Michigan State went on to win in spite of the foul/freethrow disparity. Only a late flurry of intentional fouling by UConn to stop the clock brought the total foul count to within 10 (MSU 25 to 18 for UConn) and the freethrows to within 20 (MSU 20, UConn 33). The gap in both categories was much wider with 3 minutes to go. UConn had one guy, a backup guard, with 4 fouls.
Contrast this with the beatdown North Carolina put on Villanova. At the end of the first half, the fouls and freethrows were essentially even. Eventually Nova had to foul a lot to try to get back in the game and got blown out at the freethrow line (37 to 16, 20 fouls for UNC to 26 for Nova). But Carolina had three of its four starters with 4 fouls. Until Nova got desperate in the second half, this was a fairly evenly officiated game.
Frankly, Connecticut really choked in terms of their offensive execution. Handing out 8 assists versus committing 16 turnovers, going 21 from 33 at the FT line, making 2 of 6 3PT shots, and giving up 16 offensive rebounds to a much smaller front line translated into 13 more FG attempts for MSU than for UConn, more than making up for the extra 7 points the Huskies got from the charity stripe.
But I'll look forward to watching Thabeet get dunked on and muscled out of the paint in the pros as he tries to replicate Manute Bol's career, Robinson sitting at the end of somebody's bench with a bored expression, and Adrien playing out his string in the NBDL. I'd be surprised to see any of the Spartans doing much in the pros--Suton might fit into a team like Milkwaukee, Utah, or San Antonio as a bench guy, while Walton could be a defensive-minded backup point guard for someone. But then, they didn't get the hype of the Huskies, who managed to be unlikeable, arrogant underachievers once again.
As for the title game, I think the dangers faced by the Tarheels are (a) their bench seems much weaker to me if the starters get in foul trouble [the bench scored 5 points in 54 minutes in a game UNC dominated]; (b) their FT shooting was terrible; (c) they will forget to play defense at some point in the game. If Villanova could have made a 3PT shot or hit a pull-up jumper at any point in the 2nd half they could have made a game of it, but they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
This game comes down to two things: 3PT shooting and offensive rebounds. The secret of UNC's tourney success hasn't been much of a secret--they're defending the 3PT shot well while hitting a good percentage of their own threes.
Here's the 3PT shooting comparisons for the Tarheels' last four games: Villanova 5-27 (19%] vs. UNC 11-22 [50%]; Oklahoma 2-19 [11%] vs. UNC 5-14 [35%]; Gonzaga 7-23 [30%] vs. UNC 11-19 [58%]; LSU 9-22 [40%] vs. UNC 6-13 [43%].
Note that in their double-digit wins, Carolina has basically a 20% or better edge in 3PT shooting percentage, scoring more points with fewer shots from deep, making their offense much more efficient. In the one close game against LSU, the figures are pretty even. So the first key for the Spartans is to not get killed from the three-point line. They can do this either by shooting a solid percentage themselves and/or limiting Carolina's percentage. They don't need to win the war necessarily, just keep it close in terms of efficiency. If they can't, they'll lose by double digits.
The second key is the offensive glass. Carolina gave up 19 offensive rebounds to Villanova, 10 to Oklahoma, 3 to Gonzaga, and 14 to LSU. They only won the rebounding battle overall in one of those four games. Michigan State grabbed 16 offensive boards against UConn, 12 against Louisville, 11 against Kansas, and 10 against USC. Consistent success against tough rebounding opponents.
Based on these trends, I expect MSU to grab double-digit offensive boards against Carolina as well--the question is, can the Spartans protect their own defensive glass from Tarheel putbacks? Because UConn and Kansas basically matched MSU in that area. If MSU gets an advantage here, along with limiting the 3PT % gap, I think this is a real ball game.
The final x-factor for me is not so much the home court aspect for Michigan State so much as the fact that the Spartans played a MUCH tougher trio of opponents in the past few weeks than the Tarheels. Kansas is better than Gonzaga, Louisville is better than Oklahoma, and Connecticut is better than Villanova. USC vs. LSU is probably a wash. So the Spartans have come much closer to seeing opponents on par with UNC than the Tarheels have come to facing an opponent as tough as MSU is right now.
Contrast this with the beatdown North Carolina put on Villanova. At the end of the first half, the fouls and freethrows were essentially even. Eventually Nova had to foul a lot to try to get back in the game and got blown out at the freethrow line (37 to 16, 20 fouls for UNC to 26 for Nova). But Carolina had three of its four starters with 4 fouls. Until Nova got desperate in the second half, this was a fairly evenly officiated game.
Frankly, Connecticut really choked in terms of their offensive execution. Handing out 8 assists versus committing 16 turnovers, going 21 from 33 at the FT line, making 2 of 6 3PT shots, and giving up 16 offensive rebounds to a much smaller front line translated into 13 more FG attempts for MSU than for UConn, more than making up for the extra 7 points the Huskies got from the charity stripe.
But I'll look forward to watching Thabeet get dunked on and muscled out of the paint in the pros as he tries to replicate Manute Bol's career, Robinson sitting at the end of somebody's bench with a bored expression, and Adrien playing out his string in the NBDL. I'd be surprised to see any of the Spartans doing much in the pros--Suton might fit into a team like Milkwaukee, Utah, or San Antonio as a bench guy, while Walton could be a defensive-minded backup point guard for someone. But then, they didn't get the hype of the Huskies, who managed to be unlikeable, arrogant underachievers once again.
As for the title game, I think the dangers faced by the Tarheels are (a) their bench seems much weaker to me if the starters get in foul trouble [the bench scored 5 points in 54 minutes in a game UNC dominated]; (b) their FT shooting was terrible; (c) they will forget to play defense at some point in the game. If Villanova could have made a 3PT shot or hit a pull-up jumper at any point in the 2nd half they could have made a game of it, but they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
This game comes down to two things: 3PT shooting and offensive rebounds. The secret of UNC's tourney success hasn't been much of a secret--they're defending the 3PT shot well while hitting a good percentage of their own threes.
Here's the 3PT shooting comparisons for the Tarheels' last four games: Villanova 5-27 (19%] vs. UNC 11-22 [50%]; Oklahoma 2-19 [11%] vs. UNC 5-14 [35%]; Gonzaga 7-23 [30%] vs. UNC 11-19 [58%]; LSU 9-22 [40%] vs. UNC 6-13 [43%].
Note that in their double-digit wins, Carolina has basically a 20% or better edge in 3PT shooting percentage, scoring more points with fewer shots from deep, making their offense much more efficient. In the one close game against LSU, the figures are pretty even. So the first key for the Spartans is to not get killed from the three-point line. They can do this either by shooting a solid percentage themselves and/or limiting Carolina's percentage. They don't need to win the war necessarily, just keep it close in terms of efficiency. If they can't, they'll lose by double digits.
The second key is the offensive glass. Carolina gave up 19 offensive rebounds to Villanova, 10 to Oklahoma, 3 to Gonzaga, and 14 to LSU. They only won the rebounding battle overall in one of those four games. Michigan State grabbed 16 offensive boards against UConn, 12 against Louisville, 11 against Kansas, and 10 against USC. Consistent success against tough rebounding opponents.
Based on these trends, I expect MSU to grab double-digit offensive boards against Carolina as well--the question is, can the Spartans protect their own defensive glass from Tarheel putbacks? Because UConn and Kansas basically matched MSU in that area. If MSU gets an advantage here, along with limiting the 3PT % gap, I think this is a real ball game.
The final x-factor for me is not so much the home court aspect for Michigan State so much as the fact that the Spartans played a MUCH tougher trio of opponents in the past few weeks than the Tarheels. Kansas is better than Gonzaga, Louisville is better than Oklahoma, and Connecticut is better than Villanova. USC vs. LSU is probably a wash. So the Spartans have come much closer to seeing opponents on par with UNC than the Tarheels have come to facing an opponent as tough as MSU is right now.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Quick Thought on Final Four
{Afterword: Well, MSU found a way. I still think my criticisms of the Huskies hold up.}
As I write this, Michigan State is beating UConn by 2 point at the end of the first half. And I'm saying right now that if the officiating continues to favor Connecticut to the degree that I've seen so far, there is no way the Spartans can win this game. None. They can keep it close, but eventually being called for twice as many fouls (12 to 6) and shooting about a third of the free throws (5 to 13) is going to do them in.
The Huskies have driven me batshit all year with the one-sided officiating. When the officials call a game fairly evenly (as with the March 7 loss to Pitt, where the Huskies shot ten more free throws but the total fouls were 14 UConn, 16 Pitt, or in the February 16 loss to Pitt, where the Panthers actually took three more foul shots than the Huskies and the total fouls were 18 Pitt, 19 UConn), the Huskies are vulnerable and tend to lose, as this particular collection of players has done the past few years. Note that their charming coach, Jim Calhoun, complained after both those losses that the officiating was terrible and one-sided. By which he meant that UConn was unable to amass its usual collection of free passes. When the officials are in the tank for UConn, as they have been most of the time this season, the Huskies are essentially unbeatable.
This was the entire, barely commented upon story of their defeat of the Missouri Tigers. UConn got called for 13 fouls, Missouri for 24, and they shot 20 more freethrows. In a game they won by seven points.
And it's not like they're a finesse team on offense or defense. I watched them commit plenty of fouls in the first half of this game on the interior and lots of handchecking on the perimeter. Multiple times Huskies got faked off their feet, landed on the offensive player with a lot of contact, and there was no whistle. Adrien in particular commits a shitload of fouls on the interior, offensive and defensive, that don't get called. Also, A.J. Price's go-to perimeter move is a push off with his left forearm.
If the officials just swallowed their whistles, as they seemed to do with a lot of UCLA games the past few years where everybody is allowed to pound on everyone, then it wouldn't bother me so much. Instead, the officials call fouls on one end of the court that are somehow not fouls when UConn commits them at the other end of the court.
Contrast this with Michigan State. Against Louisville, MSU got whistled for 22 fouls to 14 for Louisville, and shot 11 freethrows to 18 for the Cardinals. Against Kansas, 16 fouls for MSU to 17 for Kansas, 17 FTs to 13. Against USC, 18 fouls against MSU to 21 against USC, 31 FTs for MSU to 26 for USC. All very close except the Louisville game, where MSU overcame a deficit.
The preferential officiating on behalf of Connecticut embarrassing to watch for anybody who isn't a UConn fanatic, and it, along with the general jackassery and posing of players like Adrien and Thabeet, taints every victory this team amasses as it strolls toward the title game enjoying red carpet treatment. And if they manage to lose this game, which I would find remarkable, they will have lost it in spite of enjoying an unfair advantage.
As I write this, Michigan State is beating UConn by 2 point at the end of the first half. And I'm saying right now that if the officiating continues to favor Connecticut to the degree that I've seen so far, there is no way the Spartans can win this game. None. They can keep it close, but eventually being called for twice as many fouls (12 to 6) and shooting about a third of the free throws (5 to 13) is going to do them in.
The Huskies have driven me batshit all year with the one-sided officiating. When the officials call a game fairly evenly (as with the March 7 loss to Pitt, where the Huskies shot ten more free throws but the total fouls were 14 UConn, 16 Pitt, or in the February 16 loss to Pitt, where the Panthers actually took three more foul shots than the Huskies and the total fouls were 18 Pitt, 19 UConn), the Huskies are vulnerable and tend to lose, as this particular collection of players has done the past few years. Note that their charming coach, Jim Calhoun, complained after both those losses that the officiating was terrible and one-sided. By which he meant that UConn was unable to amass its usual collection of free passes. When the officials are in the tank for UConn, as they have been most of the time this season, the Huskies are essentially unbeatable.
This was the entire, barely commented upon story of their defeat of the Missouri Tigers. UConn got called for 13 fouls, Missouri for 24, and they shot 20 more freethrows. In a game they won by seven points.
And it's not like they're a finesse team on offense or defense. I watched them commit plenty of fouls in the first half of this game on the interior and lots of handchecking on the perimeter. Multiple times Huskies got faked off their feet, landed on the offensive player with a lot of contact, and there was no whistle. Adrien in particular commits a shitload of fouls on the interior, offensive and defensive, that don't get called. Also, A.J. Price's go-to perimeter move is a push off with his left forearm.
If the officials just swallowed their whistles, as they seemed to do with a lot of UCLA games the past few years where everybody is allowed to pound on everyone, then it wouldn't bother me so much. Instead, the officials call fouls on one end of the court that are somehow not fouls when UConn commits them at the other end of the court.
Contrast this with Michigan State. Against Louisville, MSU got whistled for 22 fouls to 14 for Louisville, and shot 11 freethrows to 18 for the Cardinals. Against Kansas, 16 fouls for MSU to 17 for Kansas, 17 FTs to 13. Against USC, 18 fouls against MSU to 21 against USC, 31 FTs for MSU to 26 for USC. All very close except the Louisville game, where MSU overcame a deficit.
The preferential officiating on behalf of Connecticut embarrassing to watch for anybody who isn't a UConn fanatic, and it, along with the general jackassery and posing of players like Adrien and Thabeet, taints every victory this team amasses as it strolls toward the title game enjoying red carpet treatment. And if they manage to lose this game, which I would find remarkable, they will have lost it in spite of enjoying an unfair advantage.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)